Understanding the Russian Military Plan for Ukraine

 There is an enormous propaganda campaign underway in the West to convince the American people that they should care more about Ukraine’s border with Russia than our own border with Mexico. Give me the list of our politicians, Democrats and Republicans, who are demanding action to secure our southern border. The voices are small and not resonating. Then draw up a list of the politicians insisting that we take actions in Ukraine that will risk a nuclear war with Russia. That list is long and their voices are loud. If you dare suggest this is madness, you are accused of being a tool of Putin. That is despicable nonsense.

If you are looking for some honest military analysis on what is really taking place in Ukraine I recommend the following blogs:

• The Saker
• Andrei Martyanov

The Saker has an excellent article that provides a sound, comprehensive overview of the Russian plan. Here is the map showing that Russian forces are surrounding and dismembering Ukrainian military units in the eastern part of Ukraine:

Here is Saker’s analysis of the Russian timeline so far:

• Dismembering and disorganizing the Ukrainian military was achieved in the estimated 24 hours
• Closing the operational cauldron behind the Ukie forces in the Donbass: achieved in 2 weeks (in fact, it is even better, the Russians are now cutting the Ukie forces in the Donbass into two smaller cauldrons, see map here: (you see TWO blue circles, not one anymore!)
• Within the same two weeks, Russia took control of the entire Sea of Azov coast and much of the Black Sea Coast, which is now either under Russian control, or under direct Black Sea Fleet blockage.
• Also within those two weeks, Russia basically encircled Kiev.  This map shows you the situation around Kiev as it was today.  While the situation on the south side is still unstable, combat operations are taking place, what is certain is this: only small, secondary, roads and open terrain are left to escape the city.  Like everywhere else (see below), the Russians have offered humanitarian corridors and promised safety and good treatment to all Ukrainian POWs (Nazis are excluded, as are foreign mercenaries, they will be interrogated and shot).  But to no avail, the Nazi delegation cannot agree to anything because their bosses in DC tell them to fight down to the last Ukrainian (as for the Anglos, Polaks & Co. they announce Russian defeats everywhere and every day, but for some unfathomable reason, they all are safely tucked away in Lvov or even Warsaw.  How surprising!)

• And, again, all that was achieved in TWO WEEKS and WITHOUT numerical superiority!

So here is what the Russians may have decided:

• Begin with a tactical assault against the Ukie forces in the Donbass
• Bypass all Ukie fortifications and cities which are not willing to surrender
• Develop your tactical assault into an operational one by encircling the ENTIRE Ukrainian force in the Donbass
• Move along the coast to liberate Mariupol (tactical), then continue further west (operational development)
• Clear the Ukrainian skies and quickly achieve air supremacy thereby dramatically reducing the ability of the Nazis to run, the Ukrainians keep their supply lines open.
• Once the skies are safe (not so much from Ukie aircraft, but from their air defenses), fully engage your rotary and fixed-wing aviation for reconnaissance, close air support, move forces, etc.
• Block the main Ukie Nazi centers: Mariupol (combats well inside the city), Nikolaev (combats all around the city), in  Kharkov (blocked), Chernigov (blocked), Odessa (almost blocked) and Kiev (almost blocked).  Then wait for the city to surrender.  For that, the city would have to get rid of the local Nazis first, of course.  If they cannot do that, then use specialized urban assault to liberate the city and kill all the Nazis, but their orders should be to save their own lives before saving anybody else.  So this implies a very slow and deliberate gradual movement in the depth of the city.
• Next, destroy the long-range artillery which STILL strikes at the LDRN from several locations (Avdeevka).  Then blockade the remaining forces and wait for them to surrender.  Strongly urge the Ukrainian commanders to avoid a useless carnage and lay down arms.  If all else fails, say within a week or so, wipe them out.  Literally and quickly: once the entire Ukronazi controlled areas are declared “open fire zones” the really heavy Russian hardware will take less than 24 hours to completely liberate the entire Donbass.
• Then liberate the south first, that is the full Black Sea coast.
• Then begin to move forces towards the general direction of central Ukraine (south of Kiev) and wait for more strategic-level decisions by the Russian General Staff and the Kremlin

The US intelligence community (becoming more of an oxymoron every day) was spooked last week when they picked up intel that Russian units that specialize in Chemical and Biological Weapons were being activated. We now know why–Russia discovered that the U.S. and Ukraine were operating several CBW labs in Ukraine and the Russian Army is in the process of securing those sites and rendering them inert. If you have not read the articles by Jim Hoft on this critical topic please do. Here are the links: