Bloomberg Eclipses Warren, Taking Third Place Nationally In New Poll

On Thursday, The Hill released the latest Hill-HarrisX national poll for the 2020 Democratic primary candidates. The poll, which was conducted between January 20 and 22 on “2,003 registered voters,” is good news for billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who was a late-entrant into the race.

As expected, among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, former Vice President Joe Biden leads with 29% support, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) comes in second with 17% support.

What’s surprising about this survey is that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who was at one time considered a potential challenger to Biden’s dominance, has tumbled to fourth place with just 9% support, and Michael Bloomberg has risen to take third place with 11% support.

The rest of the field is about as expected, with Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 5%, businessman Andrew Yang and billionaire Tom Steyer tied at 4%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) tied at 2% support.

According to the poll, Biden and Bloomberg share a trait in that their support grows (for the most part) with each age group. Sanders’ support does just the opposite, shrinking as the respondents’ age increases.

Among the 18-34 age group, Bloomberg has 9% support. His support actually dips to 7% among the 35-49 age group before rebounding to 10% in the 50-64 age group and 20% in the 65+ age group. Biden follows a similar pattern, with 15% support among the 18-34 group, 29% support among the 35-49 group, 38% support among the 50-64 group, and 37% among the 65+ group.

Sanders, on the other hand, has by far his greatest support among the 18-34 age group with 31%. Among the 35-49 group, Sanders drops to 17%. He drops to 11% in the 50-64 group, and again to 7% in the 65+ demographic.

Unlike the top three Democratic contenders, whose support vacillates fairly significantly depending on the age of the voter, Warren’s levels stay within a five point boundary (8%, 12%, 8%, 7%).

Among African American voters, Biden continues to dominate with a 30-point gap between him and his nearest rival, Sanders. Biden commands 46% African American support to Sanders’ 16%, Bloomberg’s 10%, Warren and Yang’s 7%, and Buttigieg’s 0%.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Hill-HarrisX poll is that among “independents,” Sanders fares the best by eight points. Among independents, Sanders has 22% support, Biden has 14%, Bloomberg has 10%, Yang has 9%, and Warren has just 8%.

This is only one poll, and should be treated as such. According to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Biden still leads the pack with 27.2% support. Sanders, who is indeed rising, stands in second place with 23.5%. Warren still clings to third with 15%, and Bloomberg has risen to 8%.

In Iowa, which caucuses on Monday, Sanders leads by 3.6 points. In New Hampshire, which votes next on February 11, Sanders leads by a 9.5 point margin.