100,000 could die if lockdown is lifted too soon warns Prof Neil Ferguson - as new analysis predicts up to 60,000 dead by start of August (9 Pics)

The number of deaths from coronavirus could reach 100,000 in the UK if the nationwide lockdown is lifted too soon, Professor Neil Ferguson warned yesterday. 

The Imperial College epidemiologist gave the warning as new data from a Seattle university predicted the number of British coronavirus cases could triple by August.

He said it was impossible to send the young and healthy back to work while keeping the vulnerable in lockdown without seeing a huge increase in deaths.

Professor Ferguson said some degree of social isolation will continue to be required until a vaccine to the killer bug is released.

Professor Neil Ferguson warned the number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK could reach 100,000 this year if 

 The number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK increased by 813 yesterday, the sixth highest daily increase since the pandemic began. The number of infections rose by 4,913

Responding to whether distancing rules could be relaxed earlier for less vulnerable workers, Professor Ferguson said this would result in more than 100,000 deaths by the end of the year.

He told UnHerd: 'In practical terms, you would require a very high level of effective shielding for that to be a viable strategy.

'If you just achieve 80 per cent shielding - and 80 per cent reduction in infection risk in those groups - we still project that you would get more than 100,000 deaths this years from that kind fo strategy. 

'The most vulnerable people are also the people who most need care and most need interaction with the health system and are are least able to be truly isolated.'

The news comes as data from the University of Washington in Seattle predicted British coronavirus deaths could reach 62,500. The data shown above shows the upper uncertainty bound of cumulative covid deaths in the research's prediction

The study was undertaken by the university's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, run by Dr Christopher JL Murray, Institute Director and Professor of Global Health. The Institute received $279million (£226million) in funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation earlier this year 

Professor Ferguson's warning comes as new data predicts the number of UK coronavirus deaths could reach more than 60,000 under current isolation rules. 

Fresh analysis from Seattle's University of Washington has predicted that the number of coronavirus deaths in Britain - currently 20,319 - could reach 37,494 by August 4.

However, the total number of deaths could go as high as 62,500 by that date, according to the university's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The institute, which received $279million (£226million) in funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation earlier this year, released its latest forecast this morning.

The number of people to have tested positive for coronavirus increased by 4,913 to 148,377, it was revealed at a on Saturday afternoon

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus has fallen over the last 24 hours across the country

England continues to lead the UK for the percentage of critical care beds that are being used for coronavirus patients

In other coronavirus news:

• Ministers were planning to put all travellers from abroad, including returning UK citizens, in quarantine for a fortnight
• Tory 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady warned Mr Johnson that prolonging the lockdown 'for longer than necessary would have its own toll of mass unemployment, business failure and catastrophic deterioration of the public finances', while Tory donor and City grandee Michael Spencer called for the Government to provide a blueprint for easing the measures, with a friend saying 'it should not continue a day longer than necessary'
• Chancellor Rishi Sunak set out options for exiting the lockdown during a three-hour summit at Mr Johnson's Chequers country retreat and championed the Czech Republic's five -stage plan to lift all domestic restrictions by June 8
• A Cabinet Minister told this newspaper that it was untrue that Mr Johnson's illness had made him reluctant to lift the social distancing measures
• Former Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers called on the Government to open garden centres immediately – a view backed by a new opinion poll
• Tory MPs warned teachers' unions not to block pupils' early return to the classroom
• Home Secretary Priti Patel warned that 'we are not out of the woods yet' and urged the public to continue to follow social distancing rules – while vowing to tackle 'the most sophisticated' criminals who are seeking to 'exploit and capitalise' on the pandemic
• An investigation by this newspaper established that wealthy tycoons living in the tax haven of Monaco are using British taxpayers' cash to pay the wages of the staff in their UK companies
• Police said there had been 53 attacks on 5G masts amid conspiracy theories falsely linking them to the virus – including a mast serving Birmingham's new Nightingale Hospital
• There was renewed controversy over the low number of patients being treated in Nightingale Hospitals
• The global death toll exceeded 200,000

Transport use in the country has started to creep up amid sunnier weather and people getting restless from being shut in their homes for a fifth straight week

Apply mobility trends data for the UK. The number of requests for directions involving walking, driving or public transport shows signs of increasing after decreasing over the past month and a half