Coronavirus death toll estimate DROPS again: Top COVID-19 model shows predicted US fatalities have fallen by 12% from 68,841 to 60,308 - just three weeks after it projected that 84,000 would die

The US death toll will be 12 percent lower than expected as social distancing guidelines and state lockdowns have helped to slow the spread of coronavirus, experts predict.

The University of Washington's predictive model, which is regularly cited by state public health authorities and White House officials, projected on Friday that the US death toll will reach 60,308 by August 4.

This marks a 12 percent decline from 68,841 deaths forecast earlier in the week. 

Researchers said better-than-expected social distancing practices and strict state shutdowns across the US over the past four weeks have helped to slow the pandemic in its tracks and improved the outlook for Americans. 

The University of Washington's predictive model projected on Friday that the US death toll will reach 60,308 by August 4 

'We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country, have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and co-workers by reducing physical contact,' said Christopher Murray, director of the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).    

The model also projected that the US reached its peak death rate of 2,481 on April 15, and peak hospitalizations on April 14.

This is the second time the institute has revised down its figures, after it predicted just three weeks ago 84,000 Americans would be killed in the pandemic.  

Based on the new estimates, the institute said states with low death rates, including Vermont, West Virginia, Montana and Hawaii, could safely relax some restrictions on May 4, so long as they continued to limit social gatherings.  

The model also projected that the US reached its peak death rate of 2,481 on April 15

The Institute also said peak hospital resource occurred on April 14

States moving to ease stay-at-home measures also are urged to institute widespread testing for infections and to isolate anyone testing positive, while tracing their close contacts and quarantining them. 

Other largely rural or sparsely populated states, including Iowa, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, may need to wait until late June or early July to reopen, the institute said.

It also recommended that states should only reopen if they have infection rates of less than one in 1 million people.  

People social distancing in New York City. Researchers said better-than-expected social distancing practices and strict state shutdowns have improved the outlook for Americans

The model's latest forecast for the first time incorporated cell phone data that suggested people began having less contact with one another earlier than was previously assumed, especially in the South, as a growing number of states imposed social distancing and stay-home orders.

Signs that social distancing and state lockdowns are working come amid a turbulent week for the US, where protesters have marched on official residences demanding stay at home orders end. 

More than 37,000 Americans have been killed in the pandemic and the number of confirmed infections has topped 708,000.

Friday marked the fourth consecutive day that the number of deaths from the virus nationwide grew by more than 2,000 in a 24-hour period.