Summer WON'T curb the spread of the coronavirus: Study debunks claims that warmer weather will halt the pandemic

Summer will not curb the spread of the coronavirus in the northern hemisphere, a study has found — dashing hopes that warmer weather will halt the pandemic.

The transmission of many infectious diseases — such as influenza and SARS — are known to be impeded by increases in the ambient temperature.

Previous studies from both Beihang and Tsinghua Universities had concluded that the transmission rate of COVID-19 in China fell in as the temperature grew warmer.

However, the latest work comparing transmission rates with the weather by researchers from Fudan University has concluded there was no such relationship.

The findings come as both New Zealand and Australia report falling infection rates as they declare successes in breaking the coronavirus' chain of the transmission.

The investigation was undertaken by public health expert Weibing Wang and colleagues from Fudan University in Shanghai, China.

'Our analysis suggested that ambient temperature has no significant impact on the transmission ability of SARS-CoV-2,' the researchers said.

'It is premature to count on warmer weather to control COVID-19, and relying on seasonality to curb this pandemic can be a dangerous line of thought.'

'Changing seasons may help but are unlikely to stop transmission,' the team added.

'Urgent policies or interventions — such as community travel bans and school closures — are needed to help slow transmission.'

In their study, Dr Wang and colleagues analysed the spread of coronavirus in 224 Chinese cities — including 17 in Hubei province, where the outbreak began — using data from the National Health Commission and the Provincial Health Commissions.

They then compared this information with daily weather data — including measurements of the mean temperature, relative humidity and incoming ultraviolet (UV) radiation — over the period between January and early March 2020.

The team found that there was no significant association between either the temperature or the levels of UV exposure from sunlight and the total infection rate, both in cities inside and outside of Hubei province.

COVID-19 would not be the first infectious disease to defy expectations and remain unaffected by the arrival of warmer weather, the researchers note. 

Total case numbers in the MERS epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula were known to continue developing when temperatures reached as high as 113°F (45°C).

Other recently emerged diseases transmitted from animals into humans — including Ebola and some strains of influenza — have also occurred in unpredictable patterns.

'Even though the transmission of SARS, which began in November, 2002, and ended in July, 2003, suggests it might be seasonal,' the researchers concluded.

'It also might have been controlled by effective case finding, contact tracing and quarantine.'

The full findings of the study were published in the European Respiratory Journal.