Coronavirus vaccines will be produced BEFORE it's known if they work: Dr Fauci reveals one hundred million doses will be available by the end of the year as deaths top 106,000 and infections rise to 1.8million

America's top infectious disease expert, Dr Anthony Fauci, said he believes the United States should have 100 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year.

Dr. Fauci explained in a live video interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association that production on the vaccine would begin before it's known if it works.

Scientists should have enough data by November or December to determine if the vaccine is effective, he said, but production would begin before then to ensure that if it does work, it can be deployed quickly.

He added that this could result in the production of a couple of hundred million doses by early 2021.

His comments came as confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States reached over 1.8 million and the death toll passes 106,000. 

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Dr Anthony Fauci expressed optimism about the US effort to make coronavirus vaccines in general, and the NIAID's work with Moderna to make one in particular on Tuesday (file)  

'We're going to start manufacturing doses of the vaccines way before we even know that the vaccine works,' Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said. 

'So that by the end of the year the prediction of the statistical analysis and the projection of cases indicate that we may know whether its effective, efficacious or not by maybe November, December, which means that by that time we hopefully would have close to a 100 million doses. 

'And by the beginning of 2021, we hope to have a couple of hundred million doses,' he added.

'So, it isn't as if we're going to make the vaccine show its effective and then have to wait a year to rev up to millions and millions of doses. That's going to be done as we're testing the vaccine.'

Fauci was speaking about trials on the first vaccine candidate made by biotech company Moderna in partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAD), of which he is the director.

Moderna's shot showed early promise in its phase 1 human tests last month. The company reported that it triggered antibody production on par with that seen in recovered coronavirus patients.

Phase two of the trials on the Moderna vaccine started Friday and the third and final phases of the vaccine being developed by the Massachusetts-based biotech firm will begin in early July.

'The real business end of this all will be the Phase III that starts in the first week of July, hopefully,' Fauci said. 'We want to get as many datapoints as we can.'

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Moderna announced Friday that it has begun its second phase of human trials for its coronavirus vaccines - but the results of its first human tests are now shrouded in controversy

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Moderna has led the pack in the US race to make a vaccine to prevent coronavirus infection 

He explained that this final phase will involve testing on about 30,000 volunteers over a range of ages, including those with underlying health issues.

'It's going to be the entire spectrum,' Fauci said.

Speaking at a The Wall Street Journal's Tech Health Conference on Tuesday, Dr Fauci said that he is 'really optimistic' about the Moderna vaccine.

He added that he was 'cautiously optimistic' that one of several coronavirus vaccines being developed in the US will work to prevent infection, and be ready in 'a reasonable period of time.'

Dr Fauci is encouraged by the fact that an antibody response has been seen in coronavirus patients who have recovered from the infection.

That is not the case for every infectious disease. Most notably, the human body does not mount an immune response to HIV, the infectious disease upon which Dr Fauci built his career studying

'Given that the body can make a good response against coronavirus, we feel cautiously optimistic that if we mimic safely natural infection with our vaccine, we will be able to induce a response in a person that would be equivalent to the response that natural infection induces,' Dr Fauci said via video call during the remote conference.

Optimism on the vaccine sent shares for Moderna sky-rocketing by 20 percent in May, but was quickly followed by skepticism and the revelation that the suspiciously well-timed results coincided with automated trading by the company's largest investor and the sale of $30 million worth of shares by two of its executives.

Medical experts, too, questioned whether the data from the study - which reported antibody levels in just eight patients - was significant, or entirely positive.

But speaking on Tuesday Dr Fauci was unwavering, saying he and his collaborators 'are really optimistic we're going to be successful.'

'I'm cautiously optimistic that with the multiple candidates we have with different platforms, that we are going to have a vaccine that will make it deployable,' Fauci said. 

He explained that he remains optimistic as while deaths from coronavirus have been 'profound', people mainly recover from the virus and recovery evidence shows that there is a there is an immune response.

'Which tells us, that if the body is capable of making an immune response to clear the virus of natural infection, that's a pretty good proof of concept,' Fauci said.

'Having said that, there is never a guarantee.'

Moderna's 'positive data' on its vaccine was released on May 18.

The eight people in the trial had blood levels of neutralizing antibodies - immune cells that may be able to block the coronavirus - that were on par with those seen in people who had recovered from coronavirus.

Only about a third drugs that enter clinical trials make it to final stage testing. So, it's not terribly common for big announcements to be made about early stage tests, which may have little bearing on the outcome of clinical trials. 

What's more, University of Texas vaccine expert Dr Peter Hotez noted on Twitter that some studies have suggested that the level of these antibodies in recovered patients' plasma might not be sufficient to neutralize the virus.

So, the trial's highly anticipated results were 'not necessarily good news,' he said.

But it's the best news the US has seen about a vaccine so far, although similar results were seen in early trials of a vaccine being developed in China.

And the stock market certainly responded as though it was very good news.

Based on early indicators of an antibody response seen in just eight trial participants, its share prices jumped up 20 percent.

In the hours and days following the announcement, the company amassed $1.3 billion in a mass sale of shares to the public, two executives - chief medical officer Tal Zaks and chief technical officer Lawrence Kim - sold off nearly $30 million of their combined shares, and the Moderna's primary venture capital investor sold a million of its shares, according to CNN.

Moderna's vaccine has been mired in controversy ever since.

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Moderna's chief medical offier, Tal Zaks (left), and chief technical officer, Lawrence Kim (right), collectively made nearly $30 million selling off shares after the earlier trial results were announced 

That doesn't concern Dr Fauci so much as lingering questions over just what kind of protection these antibodies provide put him ill at ease.

'What is a big unknown is what the durability of that protection is,' he said during the Tuesday conference.

'Is it going to be a year, two years or even maybe, unfortunately, six months or less?

'Then we have a secondary problem. We may have overcome the first problem of getting a vaccine, but then you're in a logistical situation.'

Already, the 'reasonable' time frame for a coronavirus vaccine is most the start of next year for front line workers to receive it and longer for the average citizen.

If everyone needs two doses within six months, that's twice as much vaccine to produce.

The phase 2 trial for Moderna's shot, launched this week, will follow its participants for a year, but a phase 3 trial is planned for next month and the hope is that the vaccine's first batch could be ready by January. 

The Moderna vaccine is not the only one being developed.

In the United Kingdom, there is a trial by AstraZeneca also under way and following the same schedule.

Other vaccine studies are due to start one or two months after that.