Experts Clements and Keshel: Trump Victory Margin in Michigan at 373,000 Votes – Trump Won 52.9%-45.4%

 

Professor David K. Clements from New Mexico State University and retired Army intelligence captain and former baseball analyst Seth Keshel continue to release their analysis of the 2020 presidential election results.

Over the weekend the two experts released a detailed report on the expected Michigan 2020 results.

Here are their observations.

MICHIGAN SUMMARY

Biden – 2,804,040 (50.6%)
Trump – 2,649,852 (47.8%)

Michigan (MI) tracks Pennsylvania (PA) in terms of voter tendencies. Since 2008, metrics show declining Dem participation, while Republican participation has increased, especially under Trump. Obama lost 303k in 2012, Clinton another 296k. Trump gained 370k amidst this coalition shift in a shrinking state, only to be lapped by Biden with 535k after no new net positive Dem votes in 12 years.

As a general rule, states in population decline with a massive coalition shift (party switching) going on are not going to show massive gains for both sides. The counties in MI all track with PA counties. Not one clean county here – an easy Trump win as we saw on 11/3 in progress.

Best targets for audits – Macomb, Allegan, Bay, Berrien, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Jackson, Kent, Livingston, Monroe, Muskegon, Ottawa, Saginaw, St. Clair

The Precinct Strategy

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